SpaceExploration Saturday, February 1, 2003 . This is a SciScoop post by Drog
The current crew aboard IIS (two Americans and one Russian) arrived last November and is scheduled to stay until March, with supplies that should last until June. Russian space officials have said that the weekend launch of a cargo vessel to ISS, bringing fuel, equipment, food and documents to the crew, will go ahead as planned. If necessary, though, a Russian Soyuz vehicle attached to the space station could bring the three astronauts back to Earth at a moment’s notice. Yet 42 astronauts were due to visit the ISS this year–36 on five shuttle flights, and six on two Soyuz flights. A Russian space expert has said that the Columbia catastrophe could force “the return of the (ISS) crew to Earth and the switching of the station to automatic pilot for an indefinite period.” With only two Russian Soyuz craft capable of docking to the ISS, a manned presence can be maintained on the ISS for only one year. But there would be little for astronauts to do without the shuttle to bring up scientific experiments and components for further construction of the station. If ISS were to be abandoned for a time, the space station can operate in ‘dormant’ mode as long as occasional maintenance is performed by visiting astronauts. In fact, NASA had already been considering a ‘demanning’ contingency for 2003. But the longer the station goes unoccupied, the greater the chances that it will deteriorate to an uninhabitable state.
Whether the shuttle fleet remains grounded for an extended period of time or not, the loss of Columbia could accelerate NASA’s plans for developing a new Orbital Space Plane to take over the ferrying of crew and supplies to the International Space Station by the end of this decade. A fully operational fleet of space planes was hoped to be up and running in the 2010 to 2012 time frame.
Even so, a space plane will still undergo the same stresses during launch and descent that have already claimed the lives of astronauts aboard two space shuttles. Might today’s tragedy spur the U.S. government to start looking in earnest at a radically new method of getting into orbit? Perhaps a space elevator, long in the realm of science fiction, but now believed to be possible due to the invention of carbon nanotube composites, and actively being pursued by private companies such as HighLift Systems and Eureka Scientific, who believe that an elevator could be a reality in just 15 years. A space elevator, if feasible, would change the face of space exploration, making it both cheaper and safer to get astronauts and heavy cargo into space. And the centrifugal force at the end of the ribbon could be used to inexpensively fling spacecraft to planets in our solar system.
First things first, though. Determining what went wrong Saturday morning is the first priority. Then the cards will fall where they may.
Previously: « The Courage To Step Into The Sky
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6 Responses to The Aftermath of Another Shuttle Tragedy
Anonymous
February 2nd, 2003 at 10:48 am
A space elevator is a bad idea because there would be no way to defend it against terrorists. At best, it would be easily destroyed. At worst, its destruction would cause harm on Earth.
A space plane is the better solution. There are ways to slow the rate of descent so that going from orbit to landing takes longer than an hour, and thus that reentry speed and heating are reduced.
apsmith
February 2nd, 2003 at 1:01 pm
The only thing preventing more Soyuz flights to ISS is that they haven’t been scheduled or payments arranged. I can’t imagine the Russians would be unhappy to provide significantly increased launch services to the “International Space Station”. There are plenty of launchers that can get more mass into space than the Shuttle can too – moving things off them onto or attached to the station would have to be done differently from the way it has been done with the shuttles, but it seems hardly likely a bunch of rocket scientists can’t come up with ways to do it with what we’ve got…
The only feature the shuttle has that cannot be readily duplicated on another existing platform is the ability to bring 20 tons or so of material back from space – on the other hand, it’s always seemed such a waste to put the effort into getting things (like the ESA’s Leonardo-class modules) up there, only to bring them back down again!
Drog
February 2nd, 2003 at 2:11 pm
One of the links in the story said that there are “only two Soyuz capable of docking to the ISS.” I haven’t been able to verify this elsewhere on the net, although it says here that only some Soyuz are capable of docking with ISS.
It also says, “Specifically, the Soyuz can recover up to 100 lb of cargo while the Space Shuttle can recover in excess of 10,000 lb. However, both systems are dedicated to crew transfer and, in the case of the Space Shuttle, lead times to get on the cargo manifest is measured in years, if you can get on at all.” The payload you can bring back maybe isn’t vitally important, but it’s pretty useful when performing experiments that require equipment that must be brought back–and conducting zero-G experiments is supposed to be the main purpose for ISS, even if they haven’t been able to do much in that regard yet, due to being constantly short-staffed for lack of an escape vehicle that can carry more than three people.
apsmith
February 2nd, 2003 at 7:28 pm
There are (currently) only 2 Soyuz docking ports, which means only 2 of them at any given time. All the Soyuz are pretty much identical structure-wise, so that’s not the limitation (and they’re never re-used anyway, and only good for 6 months). More docking ports could easily be added; that was one of the options instead of creating an entirely new crew return vehicle. If necessary you could probably arrange some sort of tether system to strap extra Soyuz capsules to the station without being actually docked, but docking is obviously preferable.
apsmith
February 2nd, 2003 at 7:34 pm
Columbia was conducting a science mission that involved bringing a huge SpaceHab module up and back down to Earth. Given the cost of getting things to orbit, it would seem to make so much more sense to take the extra bit of effort to leave 10-ton human-habitable components in orbit, and conduct experiments in a way that either doesn’t require return, or for which a few hundred pounds of samples would suffice… Then the next time you go up, you have twice as much space to work with, no? Unfortunately, this stuff wasn’t designed with an eye to developing an orbital infrastructure, and was justified simply on the basis of the “science” being done. What we clearly need is a different over-riding purpose to our space efforts. Just doing it for science isn’t good enough.
Drog
February 2nd, 2003 at 8:03 pm
Thanks for clearing that up for me.