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China’s Plans for the Moon

SpaceExploration Thursday, May 29, 2003 . This is a SciScoop post by apsmith

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The gist of the remarks is that China is looking to take over any lead we may think we still have in aerospace – and take advantage of space resources before we have a chance to compete with them on it.

Meanwhile the US, with grounded shuttles, has to rely on Russia for continued human spaceflight capability for the time being; private companies have basically given up on the orbital launch market after failing to find sufficient capital investment funds. But there seems to be some hope that suborbital tourism will prove out private spacecraft designs and start a more wide-spread space market; this year may also see somebody win the $10 million X-Prize.

At the recent space development meeting in San Jose, we had Peter Diamandis, Rich Pournelle from XCOR, JP Aerospace and a few other companies looking to get into these new markets. We also heard from Paul Contoursi and Tom Olsen of the Colony Fund, which aims to help small-scale investors contribute to opening the space frontier. Michael Laine of LiftPort , the space elevator company, gave an excellent presentation on where they’re going – it looks very promising.

So maybe there’s hope – these private sector efforts are at least starting to look serious, and this may be a real transition year for US space efforts.

5 Responses to China’s Plans for the Moon

pinerob

May 30th, 2003 at 3:35 pm

Anyone out there know for sure if China is planning to establish a permanent presence on the moon? Any Chinese comrades reading this??

All I have heard/read is a lot speculation but not much evidence.

Also does anyone believe that this hypothetical Moon base will be a threat to the rest of the world a la RH “The Moon is a Harsh Mistress”? I’m willing to bet that a lot of people will say yes, but only as a knee-jerk reaction based on current nation-state affiliation.

I wonder why people are afraid of the Chinese establishing a Moon base? you see I am of the opinion that the Moon is not a good base from which to threaten the rest of the world. I think that if the Chinese threatened to destroy some city using Moon rocks the rest of the nations could respond by threatening to destroy Chinese cities using nuclear missiles. Which is worse, Moon rocks or nukes? I don’t want either moon rocks or nukes hitting any part of the Earth but I think you see my point.

Of course there are always moon-based lasers, etc….but it all boils down to whether or not the Chinese can defend their homeland from the Moon, I don’t think they can and therefore will not use their hypothetical Moon base for military purposes. I think it is much more probable that a hypothetical Moon base will be used for commercial and technological gain.

What do y’all think?

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Alan Von Fan

May 31st, 2003 at 4:16 am

I seem to remember that in the book it was the lunar citizens, acting independently of any nation on Earth, who were throwing rocks around secure in the knowledge that it would be difficult indeed to throw any back. From that point of view it might make a difference what the ideology of the lunar residents might be. Of course it would take a long time for moon-bases to be sufficiently independent to be able to do this without having to worry that their food supplies might be tampered with, or cut off completely. Any fear of the Chinese obtaining a moon-monopoly is probably based very much upon the traditional balance of power on Earth: will they have more resources than us; what if they discover super-chemical X, that type of thing. Ultimately it all boils down to us’ns and them’ns, and the sports team from my town being superior to the sports team from your town (they’ve just had some bad breaks this season). Frankly it’s all very silly because whoever is nominally in charge is going to be eating McMoon burgers and using Windows. Let’s just get some people up there and see what happens.

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Anonymous

June 19th, 2003 at 6:19 am

I just sent them $300…I’m kinda curious whether I’ve thrown it away, or funded my retirement :)

I was planning to invest more but I got spooked by ISR, which has 70 researchers working on elevator research, headed up by Dr. Edwards. They seem better positioned to get the grant money. But I like Liftport’s gonzo attitude, and didn’t want to count them out completely…

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apsmith

June 20th, 2003 at 7:04 pm

I can’t say I know ISR very well, but I very much doubt they have all their staff focused on space elevators – see here for a list of their current research projects. In any case, from Michael’s presentation, he and Dr. Edwards (they worked together on the previous company, “Highlift”, which received the NASA grants) will continue working together, but he’s focused on the business end of actually getting some of this accomplished, while Edwards is more interested in just continuing research. Liftport may actually have more people working directly on space elevators than ISR can afford – at least the current plan looks to be to keep about a dozen people busy for the next year (but business people, lawyers, and office staff, along with a few scientists).

If you’ve invested in their private stock offering, you’ve seen the growth plans – it doesn’t look terribly unrealistic to me, but it’s not something that they can accomplish just by relying on government grants!

Anyway, RickyJames is urging me to produce a bit more of a report on what we heard at ISDC; I’ll see what I can come up with. I have to say I came away very encouraged about the company – if only because Michael Laine himself seems extremely capable and dedicated to this project.

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apsmith

June 20th, 2003 at 7:09 pm

Another country doing it would put our own technological capabilties and future economic growth in question, which is I think what people really fear. Heinlein’s story might be a worry for a lunar base capable of real independence; I don’t think that’s likely to be an issue for a century or so at least…

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