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Racing The Red Dragon To The Moon

Aerospace Wednesday, February 18, 2004 . This is a SciScoop post by Ricky James

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China’s space efforts are stirring up fears of a new space race. “That’s the $12 million dollar question, the one I’ve been asking since the president’s speech,” said Joan Johnson-Freese of the U.S. Naval War College, one of the foremost western experts on the Chinese space program. “We are in a real window of opportunity here to make it [an American manned lunar effort], instead of a race, a chance at international leadership. We could operate inclusively and bring in not just the space station partners, but also countries like China and India, and turn this into leadership.”

China’s own manned effort proceeds without significant consideration of or cooperation with the United States. A secret pact with Australia for emergency landing rights in the Outback was recently revealed as being in place during China’s first manned mission last year. Reports said that while Australian authorities were supposed to find the Chinese capsule if it had landed in Oz, it could only have been opened by Chinese Embassy officials – the only ones with a key. A group of 14 Chinese astronauts has begun training for the two seats aboard China’s next scheduled manned flight ‘Shenzhou VI’, and much of the Chinese astronaut training is to be performed in Russia. Both Japan and India are countries with ambitions of manned space flight that could easily create ties with the Chinese manned space flight effort in addition to, or perhaps even to the exclusion of, any future American flights.

Bottom line: analysts are warning that warn China may be worlds ahead in building a lunar legacy while the U.S. is hampered by its economy and short-term plans.

1 Response to Racing The Red Dragon To The Moon

Sylvia Engdahl

February 18th, 2004 at 5:00 pm

A new space race would not be undesirable — in fact, given the attitude of most Americans toward space expenditures at present, it’s probably the only thing that could induce us to get moving. Let’s face it, we never would have gotten to the moon in the 60s if we had not been in a race with the Russians. As far as advancement for humankind is concerned, the effects of that race were entirely positive. Historians of future centuries may even say that the Cold War was a good thing because it stimulated computer technology and space technology that otherwise wouldn’t have been developed as rapidly.

We can certainly win a space race with China if we make the effort — and without one, sufficient motivation for that effort unfortunately appears to be lacking. Competition always leads to achievement. This is as true in other areas as it is in business and in sports, something advocates of cooperative programs never seem to grasp. How many sports stars would there be if athletes didn’t compete? How many people would watch games on TV if they didn’t care who won? We should not be surprised that once the space race of the 60s was over, apathy set in among most members of the public. The mistake that those of us interested in space made in expecting public enthusiasm to last was that we assumed more people shared our interest than actually did. Now we know! The public was enthusiastic about the race, not space itself. What happened once could happen again. Personally, I hope it does.

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