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Water On Mars And The Science Of Luck

SpaceExploration Wednesday, March 24, 2004 . This is a SciScoop post by Ricky James

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Well, there’s more news articles on the latest discovery of water on Mars than you could shake a gamma ray spectrometer at. Earlier evidence showed that rocks observed by the NASA Opportunity rover were formed in a wet environment. Newer rock photos expound on that earlier discovery by saying the rocks formed in a shallow saline environment with periodic currents that formed ripple structures – almost like a tidal pool on an ancient shoreline.

Chief mission scientist Steven Squyres said, “Opportunity is now parked on what was once the shoreline of a salty sea on Mars.” From now on, the fact that bodies of liquid water existed on Mars is no longer in dispute. Now it’s just a question of when, and where, and for how long. The effect of this change in our thinking, both in how we view Mars and how we view our destiny of ultimately going there, will be profound.

To me, the most amazing part of this story is the (400K version and 4MB version) picture returned by Opportunity as it finally left the Eagle Crater in which it landed for explorations farther afield. Just look at that flat, sandy emptiness in every direction, extending for kilometer after kilometer. Opportunity could very, very easily landed in the middle of a flat sandbox with no interesting rocks to see anywhere within roving range, and its mission to find evidence of Martian water would have been a failure. Instead, it lands right in the middle of a small crater with a perfect shelf of exposed bedrock, and the rest is history. Talk about luck.

Another amazing story about the science of luck is the nabbing of the Ohio sniper suspect this week. If you haven’t read about this, you should; it’s absolutely incredible. The original version of the story is newsworthy enough: Crime media buff in Las Vegas sees Ohio suspect photo in USA Today newspaper; goes to sports betting lounge and shares a piece of free pizza with the guy he’s sitting beside; becomes convinced his companion is the suspect, who eventually leaves; tipster calls police and spends rest of day trying to find the suspect, eventually finding a car parked at a Vegas motel with the correct license plates. Arrest is made at the motel of the Ohio sniper suspect.

The amazing part of the story: the guy who was first seen in the sports lounge turns out not to be the actual suspect, just a lookalike. The sleuth spent the day hunting for and eventually finding the real Ohio sniper suspect because of an initial case of mistaken identity.

Science isn’t just about facts. Whether it’s on Mars or in Las Vegas, it sure helps to have Lady Luck on your side.

4 Responses to Water On Mars And The Science Of Luck

SEWilco

March 24th, 2004 at 10:18 pm

It has already been observed that there is a little less luck involved in landing in a crater when you’re a big ball bouncing and rolling across the countryside. During that passive/aggressive landing sequence, touching a crater can make the lander stay there.

The extreme example is of the lander zooming around within the bowl of a big crater until it rolls to a stop.

A related concept is the proposal to use inflated balls as wind-blown probes. Let them roll around and scatter across the countryside. Some will just blow around and give information about wind movements. Some will get trapped in interesting places (anyplace on Mars is interesting :-) I hope they’ll aim a cluster at the summit of Mons Olympus.

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rickyjames

March 25th, 2004 at 4:16 am

It turns out gears were installed upside down in the Shuttle speed brakes for twenty years without causing loss of Orbiter and crew. Talk about lucky…

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rickyjames

March 25th, 2004 at 10:57 am

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Drog

March 25th, 2004 at 11:09 am

I had JUST read that article and was about to post the link myself.

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