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Why, and How, to Think About the Future

Books Wednesday, August 11, 2004 . This is a SciScoop post by apsmith

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Time’s arrow points ever forward, the past irrevocably gone, the
future only a guess. We temporal beings spend many of our present
moments in thought about the future – predicting, planning, worrying.
But few plans survive contact with reality. Is time
spent thinking about the future time wasted? Should we just
live for the present and let the future take care of itself?

Edward Cornish of the World Future Society makes a forceful case
for future-oriented thinking, or “futuring”, in this interesting
book. More than predicting the future, his argument is that by thinking
about it and planning for it, we gain power to change the future and
make our dreams real.

The book covers a broad swath: prediction techniques and
idea mapping, classification of trends and ’supertrends’, the
recent increase in the rate of change, and people’s desires
for stability. Cornish suggests areas where the techniques of
the book may be helpful in the personal realm, as well as on the
large scale. Perhaps the most inspiring chapter is historical -
a discussion of the significant changes of the 20th century.

The past 100 years saw vastly more technological progress than
any before. But the supreme optimism and belief in progress
at the beginning of the century was transformed through wars,
nuclear terror, and environmental degradation into strong
doubts about progress, and the prevalence of much more pessimistic views
about the future. Cornish makes a strong case that success, both
individually and as a society, depends on having a positive
vision of the future and striving to make it happen.

The book does not try to make its own predictions; rather, it
shows how they are made and can be used. Some of Cornish’s specific
examples seem not as well thought out as one might expect – for example,
he lumps energy resources and the environment together in a degradation
“supertrend”, when they really need to be treated quite distinctly.

A long bibliography section gives brief summaries of well over a hundred
books on the subject, only a few of which I had heard of before. An updated
list and much more can be found on the World Future Society website at
www.wfs.org.

4 Responses to Why, and How, to Think About the Future

Drog

August 11th, 2004 at 7:28 pm

I wonder, though, if you could elaborate a bit on why you disagree with the author lumping energy resources and the environment together in a degradation “supertrend” instead of treating them distinctly.

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apsmith

August 11th, 2004 at 7:39 pm

Well, the bias is generally to think of the environmental angle when you hear of a supertrend called “environmental degradation”, even if it in principle also includes us using up Earth’s resources. But the time scales for the two are not necessarily similar, and the attitudes for making corrections are quite different. In particular, resources allow for substitutions – and in many cases, that’s the only real solution to the “using up” problem – at least for energy. Our sustainable solutions have to be quite different from our unsustainable ones. I.e. “innovation” is key.

But on environment, the solution has to be preservation. I.e. “conservation” is key. Unfortunately, the “conservation” attitude to the energy problem is too prevalent, I believe in part because of this lumping together of two quite distinct problems.

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Drog

August 12th, 2004 at 6:28 pm

Regarding conservation as being key to preserving the environment, I heard an interesting interview with an environmental scientist on CBC radio a week or so ago. I cannot remember his name, but he had an interesting theory (and I think he had just written a book about it). Basically, he was of the opinion that trying to to convince people to be conservationists via guilt is doomed to failure, since we are, by nature, consumers. So, he argued that a better solution is to make products whose waste is beneficial to the environment. As an example of one such product already in existence, he spoke of an ice cream cone wrapper that biodegrades in hours AND (get this) contains rare seeds. So you can johnny-apple-seed your way across the country, tossing your garbage out your car window guilt-free. He spoke more technically about the solutions that are being worked on for electronics, where being biodegradable is not an option, but being completely reusable/recyclable in a cost-effective way is. I think he spoke of, for instance, the concept that whey you buy, say, an office chair, you are in effect merely leasing it, because the maker of that chair would be held responsible for it after you are done with it many years later. This would encourage them to make products that last and that can be recycled effectively.

If anyone knows who the interviewee was, please let me know.

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jxliv7

August 12th, 2004 at 8:57 pm

.
…actually there are a few organic things in electronics — like organic LCDs, biodegradable plastics, or computer bugs.

However, making a company responsible for its products has proven impossible for a hundred years or more — and they have a friend in Chapter 11. Plus, making products that last goes against the basic concept of “consumables” — planned obsolescence is a marketing strategy as well as putting out frequent upgrades.

jon

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